IMF Projects China and India Will Fuel Almost Half of 2026 Global GDP Growth

New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that economic expansion in 2026 will be disproportionately concentrated in Asia, with China and India together accounting for about 43.6% of global real GDP growth, underscoring the shifting dynamics of the world economy.

According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook data, China is expected to contribute 26.6% of total global real GDP growth for the year, while India is forecast at 17.0%, placing it ahead of many advanced economies. Together, these two countries will drive nearly 44% of global growth in 2026.

By comparison, the United States is projected to account for just 9.9%, reflecting slower expansion in advanced economies amid mixed demand conditions.

Beyond China and India, other emerging markets such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Turkey, and Nigeria are expected to contribute to global growth, though at smaller individual shares. Collectively, Asia-Pacific nations are projected to account for close to half of total world growth, highlighting the region’s growing influence in the global economy.

The IMF’s outlook also points to slower growth in advanced economies, which face challenges including demographic pressures, trade uncertainties, and structural headwinds.

Meanwhile, emerging markets such as Bangladesh are expected to rebound strongly, further emphasizing the central role of the region in driving global economic momentum.

In India, domestic projections for 2026‑27 indicate robust GDP growth, estimated above 6%, driven by strong consumption and ongoing policy reforms.

Overall, the IMF’s forecast signals a significant rebalancing of global economic activity, with China and India at the forefront of global expansion in 2026.